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March Earnings Analyst Consensus Targets and Financial Roundup: Curaleaf & Green Thumb Industries

Curaleaf and Green Thumb Industries Report In The Coming Days

Beginning next week with Curaleaf and Green Thumb Industries, and continuing into the month of April, many of the top US-based operators will report their quarterly earnings.


This post intends to share analyst consensus estimates regarding metrics such as reported revenue, EBITDA, and cash, along with providing future updates which will include items such as the press release issued with the financials, the company's earnings deck, a link to the conference call webcast, a transcript of the conference call, the company's published MD&A and quarterly filing, and any other items of interest.


While iAnthus has given their financials release date of 04/06 - and Harvest Health has stated they will be reporting that same week - we will have a separate post for the both of them, alongside their peers, who we expect to have April earnings. Keep up to date with our Calendar for all the details.


This resource will be updated on an ongoing basis. To keep up to date with this post and all other content offered by the website, consider signing up for our email list and following us on Twitter.

If you would like to learn more about each company, please click through their company logo to be taken to their investor profile page where we delve into specific details such as fully diluted market cap, share count, key quarterly financial metrics, and also extrapolate on their licenses by way of a highly-detailed footprint map. Lastly, if you're interested in looking at other data for Curaleaf, Green Thumb Industries, and all of the other companies - such as 'Last Quarter' and 'Q-over-Q' metrics - head over to our Visualizations page.

Analyst Estimates

Revenue:

While consensus among analysts forecasts for $78 million in revenue, another analyst is predicting for $75 million due to ‘weaker markets’ in both California and New York, alongside a slower than anticipated production ramp-up at Curaleaf's Florida facility. On the higher-end, Cannacord analysts are calling for $86.5 million. Last quarter's revenue came in at approximately $73.2 million (with pro-forma revenue of $129 million).


EBITDA:

Citing the potential for profits to be diluted due to lower revenue from Florida alongside integration of Acres' production facilities, one analyst is forecasting for EBITDA of $12.5 million, which is in alignment with the consensus.


Cash:

Pro-forma with the company's recent debt financing for $300 million, alongside Curaleaf's pending M&A, one analyst estimates Curaleaf's available liquidity to be approximately $275 million, excluding CAPEX. Curaleaf ended its third quarter with $91 million of cash.


Revenue:

Citing strong growth in states such as Pennsylvania, Maryland, Illinois, and Ohio, the consensus among analysts conforms to believe Green Thumb Industries will achieve revenues of approximately $76 million for their fourth quarter -- an increase of roughly 12% from Q3 ($68M).


EBITDA:

Although the consensus among analysts calls for $12.5 million in EBITDA, one GMP analyst is forecasting for GTI to achieve $15 million for the fourth quarter period. This projected EBITDA beat comes by way of predicting the company's revenue mix will be positively impacted by sales in the 'highly profitable' states of Pennsylvania and Massachusetts.


Cash:

Pro-forma with the company's recent sale-leaseback financing, one analyst predicts the company will exit Q4 with $160 million of liquidity. GTI ended Q3 with $66 million in cash.

Data Roundup & Q-over-Q Information

(Note: "Net Loss" is figure attributable to company/shareholders; "Adjusted Gross Margin" is calculated by Revenue/Gross Profit before FV adjustments)

Quarter-over-quarter financial metrics (Q3 to Q4)


  • Reported Revenue: $73.2 million -> $81.7 million [Result: +11.6%]

  • Pro-forma Revenue: $129 million -> $131.7 million [Result: +2.1%]

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $9 million -> $13.8 million [Result: +53%]

  • Cash: $91.2 million -> $42.3 million [Result: -53.6%]

  • Net Loss: $6.8 million -> $26.6 million [Result: +291% increase]

  • Adjusted Gross Margin: 47% -> 38% [Result: -9%]

Quarter-over-quarter financial metrics (Q3 to Q4)


  • Reported Revenue: $68 million -> $75.8 million [Result: +11.5%]

  • Adjusted EBITDA: $14.1 million -> $14.4 million [Result: +2.1%]

  • Cash: $66.1 million -> $46.7 million [Result: -29.3%]

  • Net Loss: $17.1 million -> $13 million [Result: -17.1% ]

  • Adjusted Gross Margin: 51% -> 53.6% [Result: +2.6%]

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